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Editor’s Note
As a dynamic intelligence database, the National Institute of Dynamics has continuously increased the construction efforts of the talent team in recent years, and more and more intelligent database researchers have emerged. They strive to use independent energy to carry out independent thinking, and to seize the dynamic problems of the times, and to cultivate themselves without rushing, and to strengthen themselves.
To this end, China Power Public No. has specially established the “Smart Library First Develop” column to focus on promoting the original article of the backbone of the National Institute of Dynamics’ research and development. While we are making a draft, we also welcome colleagues in the hospital to write down the “independent works” of their “independent works” and submit them in a concise way, and cooperate with the construction of a strong thinking and learning the traffic atmosphere.
The National Institute of Dynamics in the first quarter of the global dynamic market
severely traced political affairs backtrack
and the first half of the year’s forward-looking evaluation
The National Institute of Dynamics
International Institute of Dynamics
International Institute of Dynamics
International Institute of Dynamics
International Institute of Dynamics
Encoding: Guan Yongfan, Mao Jikang, Miao Zhongquan
(Source: China Power)
Seriously infringes political affairs as the impact of the impact of supply and demand and price changes, and determines the basis of the dynamic market in the period from a deep level. When the Institute of Dynamics research team conducts analyzing the global dynamic market in the first quarter, the focus is on Escort manilaSeriously instigate political affairs, the purpose of political affairs, is instigated by them, and these threads show the reasons for the current global dynamic market. Of course, without any slightest remarks, while analyzing these things themselves, it is not necessary to prevent the tendency of the team itself. Such a direction does not need to be a barrier to research, but hopes to attract deeper thoughts in the industry in the more clear views.
Factory 1: Russia’s sudden and confusing scenery is still highly uncertain.Manila escort, and it has continued to become a brilliant color that deeply influences the dynamic market – bright, beautiful and charming. The broadcast of the show allowed her to provide unlimited total number of heavy combat equipment for large-scale air attacks in Ukraine’s military support for Ukraine.com from the main reasons. Recently, the United States, Europe and Canada have made great efforts to fight against U.S. and Sugar baby. The Russian army’s inventory of advanced air combat equipment may have been close to the lowest level after more than a year, and the United States and Europe supply Ukraine to Ukraine, which are more advanced M1 tanks and Leopard 2 tanks, which will undoubtedly have a major impact on the rubberized battlefield. . The long and difficult situation of the war is still difficult to settle.
The impact of the Russian-U war on the supply and demand situation of global forces has gradually emerged since the outbreak of the war in previous years. But the battle has been delayed for a year and has been in a difficult position to conclude that it has been beyond the expectations of most people. This kind of “delaying” yourself has surpassed the “war” yourself and has become a new reason to reshape the global dynamic format. The longer the “delay” time, the more significant the characteristics of European power to Russia and the Russian-style “power coordination body” on New Year’s Eve, focusing on american, is clearer. Correspondingly,The more prominent Russian dynamic trade and even its economic strategy center of gravity move from the east, the more urgent it is to pursue the “heart belt” in the heartland of the European hinterland. The global dynamic format is being greatly differentiated and reorganized. As the world’s largest country in dynamic consumption and import, China plays an irreplaceable color in this area. How to develop the strategic advantages of our country and transform the passive recipients of the previous international dynamic format into the active shaping of the key energy of creating a new international dynamic format is not only a serious opportunity for China’s dynamics, but also undoubtedly an exam that has been difficult to avoid.
Business 2: Oriental’s sanctions on Russian oil prices and bans have officially expired, and the later expectation of reshaping the global dynamic trade format is becoming a reality
The EU’s quota limit mechanism for Russian offshore oil products has officially expired on February 5. According to the notice of the European Commission, the price limit mechanism covers all oil products exported by Russia. It sets a price limit of US$100 per barrel for gasoline, diesel, turmeric oil and other refined oils, and a price limit of US$45 per barrel for oil intermediate products such as stone oil. The buffer period is 55 days. During the period, the European Union will continue to monitor and evaluate and adjust the price limit on schedule. If Russia sells oil products to third-party countries at a price higher than the lower limit, countries that adopt price limit regulations will no longer provide services such as trade, insurance, finance and transportation. The Seven-National Group and Australia also adopted the same price limiting approach. This is the second time that the Eastern countries have adopted a price limit of US$60 per barrel for Russia’s crude oil exports in December of previous years. In addition, in June of previous years, the EU suspended the sanctions for importing Russian petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, fuel, etc. through offshore transportation methods, and it officially expired on the 5th.
Oriental countries have both limited prices and banned shipping on Russian oil, which will accelerate the transfer of Russian oil exports to the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, Russian oil may reduce production, and the two demand countries in China and India continue to maintain Russian oil imports. The price limit and ban on transportation can not lead to a significant decline in international oil prices. OPEC+’s production reduction method may keep oil prices at relatively high levels. OrientalSugar babyThe failure of the country’s sanctions on Russian oil is expected, and the impact on China-Russia dynamic trade relations is relatively small. However, every year, my country’s offshore imports of Russian oil account for about 8% of the total crude oil imports (data before sanctions). Under the sanctions of the United States and the East have imposed on Russian oil, my country’s crude oil imports The risk of “long arm tube” facing may increase.
Factory 3: The corruption case in Mongolia’s coal industry directly involves coal exports to my country, and its impact as “occasional reasons” can also boost Asian coal prices to a certain levelPinay escort
Mongolia’s largest coal enterprise, Erdniest Taulez, announced that it would suspend its direct coal sales agreement with China in early February because of the management of corruption in the coal industry in Mongolia. The ugly news about corruption in the coal industry, coupled with the heavy inflation in Mongolia, ended up in trouble. The 40% of the coal industry is responsible for China’s coal business, and the 40% production is sold through long-term sales, and the price is low. Priced at 20% in the market. After the suspension of direct marketing agreement, Mongolia used the coal exported to China and obtained the securities to auction it. Its price has increased compared to the coal exported by China.
The coal imported from Mongolia is close to 10% of my country’s total coal import volume, and Mongolia will clearly affect the coal exports to my country in the short term. In the long run, since Mongolia’s coal exports are relatively large to my country, China-Mongolia coal will be combined with the base It is difficult to move, but the price is increasing. During the “peak summer” period in the second quarter, coal demand in my country and India rose, and the demand for coal in Australia and Indonesia could increase, which may lead to the rise of Asian coal prices.
Interest 4: The financial affairs triggered by american Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse Bank of Switzerland are in the observation period, but they are not prepared for the The trend of expected decline in dynamic investment
American Silicon Valley Bank announced on March 9 that it would sell its securities, popular stocks and other assets to prevent liquidity crisis, causing market urgency to the potential risks of the american bank’s industrial crisis. T TC:
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